Years of life lost during the Covid-19 pandemic in Sweden considering variation in life expectancy by level of geriatric care.

The Covid-19 pandemic has not affected the population evenly. This must be acknowledged when it comes to understanding the Covid-19 death toll and answering the question of how many life years have been lost. We use level of geriatric care to account for variation in remaining life expectancy among individuals that died during 2020. Based on a linkage of administrative registers, we estimate remaining life expectancy stratified by age, sex, and care status using an incidence-based multistate model and analyze the number of years of life lost (YLL) during 2020 in Sweden. Our results show that remaining life expectancy between individuals with and without care differs substantially. More than half of all Covid-19 deaths had a remaining life expectancy lower than 4 years. Yet, in a 1-year perspective, Covid-19 did not seem to replace other causes of death. Not considering the differences in remaining life expectancy in the affected populations overestimated YLL by 40% for women and 30% for men, or around 2 years per death. While the unadjusted YLL from Covid-19 amounted to an average of 7.5 years for women and 8.6 years for men, the corresponding YLL adjusted for care status were 5.4 and 6.6, respectively. The total number of YLL to Covid-19 in 2020 is comparable to YLL from ischemic heart disease in 2019 and 2020. Our results urge the use of subgroup specific mortality when counting the burden of Covid-19. YLL are considerably reduced when the varying susceptibility for death is considered, but even if most lifespans were cut in the last years of life, the YLL are still substantial.

Excess mortality from COVID-19: weekly excess death rates by age and sex for Sweden and its most affected region.

BACKGROUND: Sweden has one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 deaths per inhabitant globally. However, absolute death counts can be misleading. Estimating age- and sex-specific mortality rates is necessary in order to account for the underlying population structure. Furthermore, given the difficulty of assigning causes of death, excess all-cause mortality should be estimated to assess the overall burden of the pandemic. METHODS: By estimating weekly age- and sex-specific death rates during 2020 and during the preceding 5 years, our aim is to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and in the most affected region Stockholm. RESULTS: Eight weeks after Sweden's first confirmed case, the death rates at all ages above 60 were higher than for previous years. Persons above age 80 were disproportionally more affected, and men suffered greater excess mortality than women in ages up to 75 years. At older ages, the excess mortality was similar for men and women, with up to 1.5 times higher death rates for Sweden and up to 3 times higher for Stockholm. Life expectancy at age 50 declined by <1 year for Sweden and 1.5 years for Stockholm compared to 2019. CONCLUSIONS: The excess mortality has been high in older ages during the pandemic, but it remains to be answered if this is because of age itself being a prognostic factor or a proxy for comorbidity. Only monitoring deaths at a national level may hide the effect of the pandemic on the regional level.